Are Homebuyers Disappearing from Central Florida? March 2026 Market Update

Mar 25
4 min read

Updated: 5 days ago

The question I've been hearing a lot lately: are buyers actually pulling back from the Central Florida market? After spending time looking at what's happening in Kissimmee, St. Cloud, Davenport, and Poinciana, here's my honest assessment as a residential appraiser who covers these markets.

The Short Answer: Buyers Haven't Disappeared: But They've Changed

Buyer activity in South Central Florida hasn't evaporated. What's changed is buyer behavior. Today's buyers are more deliberate, more data-conscious, and less willing to waive contingencies or pile on top of asking price the way they did in 2021-2022.

That shift feels like disappearing demand to some sellers. What it actually is: a return to a more normal market. And in a more normal market, preparation and pricing matter again.

Osceola County: What the Numbers Show

Osceola County: which includes Kissimmee and St. Cloud: is one of the more complex markets to appraise in Central Florida right now. The area has seen significant development over the past decade, and the mix of investor-owned short-term rentals, new construction communities, and traditional owner-occupied resale creates a layered market that requires careful comparable selection.

What I'm seeing in closed sales: homes are taking longer to sell. Days on market have stretched across most price segments. That's not a crisis: it's normalization. But sellers who bought or refinanced at peak values and now need to sell are feeling real pressure.

Why Kissimmee Homes Are Sitting Longer

Kissimmee's resale market is facing a specific challenge: competition from new construction with builder incentives. When a buyer can get a brand-new home with a rate buydown and closing cost assistance from a builder, resale sellers need to be competitive on price and condition. Many aren't: and their homes are sitting.

If you're selling resale in Kissimmee right now, the question to ask is: what does my home offer that a new construction home 10 minutes away doesn't? If the answer isn't clear, your pricing needs to reflect that.

St. Cloud: Buyers, Builders, and Resale Pressure

St. Cloud has developed rapidly over the past several years, and the buyer profile there has shifted. There's still demand, particularly from families looking for more space at a lower price per square foot than the northern Orlando suburbs. But builder competition is fierce, and resale sellers need to be honest about condition and pricing.

One thing I pay close attention to in St. Cloud appraisals is the influence of new construction on the comp pool. When builders are offering significant concessions, those need to be factored into how I analyze closed sales: which is something a lot of automated valuation tools miss entirely.

Poinciana: Affordability's Last Stand

Poinciana continues to be one of the most affordable areas in Central Florida for buyers who prioritize price. It's a market that attracts first-time buyers and investors alike, which creates its own set of dynamics.

From an appraisal standpoint, Poinciana requires local knowledge. The market there can look deceptively simple from the outside: but subdivision location, proximity to commercial development, and lot characteristics all affect value in ways that aren't captured by a zip code average.

Davenport and the Investor Pressure Question

Davenport is a market I watch closely because of the high concentration of short-term rental investment properties, particularly in the vacation home corridor near Disney. When investor sentiment shifts: and it has shifted in the past two years as short-term rental regulations tighten and occupancy rates normalize: it puts downward pressure on a segment of the market that was artificially inflated by investment demand.

For traditional owner-occupants buying in Davenport, it's important to understand which neighborhoods are primarily investor-owned versus owner-occupied, because that affects everything from comparable selection to long-term value trajectory.

Are Foreclosures Actually Rising?

This question keeps circulating, and I want to address it directly. Yes, foreclosure activity has ticked up from historic lows. But "higher than the floor" doesn't mean "crisis." The foreclosure surge that some people are predicting hasn't materialized at scale in Central Florida, and there are structural reasons: primarily the equity position most homeowners are in after several years of appreciation: why a 2008-style wave is unlikely.

That said, individual markets and price segments can behave differently. If you're buying a distressed property, an independent appraisal is non-negotiable.

Opportunities for Buyers Right Now

If you're a buyer in South Central Florida, this is actually a better environment than it's been in several years. More inventory, more days on market, and sellers who are more willing to negotiate on concessions, repairs, and price. You don't have to waive your appraisal contingency. You don't have to make decisions in 24 hours.

Use that breathing room to do your homework. Get an independent look at value before you make an offer. Understand what the comparable sales actually support: not what the seller hopes to get.

For Sellers: How to Win in This Market

Price it right from day one. Every week a home sits on the market, buyers start wondering what's wrong with it: even if nothing is. The first 10-14 days are your best opportunity to create competition and urgency. If you miss that window with an overpriced listing, getting it back is expensive.

A pre-listing appraisal removes the guesswork and gives you a data-backed starting point. It typically costs $300-$650 and can save you weeks on market and thousands in unnecessary price reductions.

I've collaborated with Natallia Mann, www.iMortgage4u.com on monthly Market Pulse videos where we break down Central Florida real estate markets. Watch the full episode about this very topic on YouTube:https://youtu.be/4dkeyDzNUe8?si=GZnl2BgWaUBR3FDk

Jessica Eckhart is a Florida Registered Trainee Appraiser (#RI25340) with Accredited Appraisals, LLC, serving Central Florida including Osceola, Orange, Polk, and surrounding counties. Contact us at 407-748-1640 or visit myappraiser.us.